Ron Paul & Prop 13

I have said in the past that I support Ron Paul (R, Tex) for president. In those prior blogs, I indicated that I did not believe that he had any chance to win the Republican nomination. I now change that opinion. I now believe that he WILL win the Republican nomination. My change in opinion comes from the following analyses: 1) the similarities of the other candidates; 2) Howard Dean; 3) Crossover primaries and the independant vote; 4) California's anti-property tax initiative from 1978, Proposition 13.

1) The other Republican candidates are too similar to each other and will split the vote.

My first point here is that ALL of the other Republican primary candidates support continuing the war in Iraq. That includes all 9 of the other candidates who have participated in the first three Republican debates AND Fred Thompson. I believe (will look up and verify later) that Newt Gingrich does as well. Any Republican primary voter who wants to end the war will have only ONE candidate who agrees with them.

My second point here is that the other Republican candidates can be bunched into a few categories: the anti-immigration candidates, the PRO-LIFE candidates (as the only thing they are known for and the only thing they really care about), the whatever-public-polls-say-at-the-moment candidates, Rudy (who cannot win the primaries because of his liberal views on abortion and gun control), and McCain, who has two laws bearing his name that guaruntee him as unelectable in the primaries: the recent immigration bill and the campaign finance (incumbent protection) law.

There is only one candidate who has crossover appeal for the general election (Dems and 'Pubs), and who has a unique constituency, and whose views are ultimately acceptable to a significant number of the Republican primary voters: Ron Paul.

2) Howard Dean (and the rise of the Internet-candidacy).

Howard Dean was badmouthed by the mainstream press to the extent that he was mentioned at all. And yet, he won enough votes to earn himself the chairmanship of the Democrat's National Committee. How did he do this? The Internet. Gore might have invented the internet (or so he claimed). Howard Dean showed how to harness the power of the Internet. Despite poor national poll showings on a daily basis, he won a large number of supporters in the active online community. This translated into an incredible primary election night streak of successes that would have been even greater had there been more candidates out there to attract and divide the non-internet Democrat primary voters. The Republican candidates are of sufficient number (see above) that a major internet candidacy has a real chance of not just winning a couple of primaries, but of actually sweeping the whole damn thing.

Ron Paul's supporters have been accused of 'poll spamming' by those who don't agree with him. Why? Because in the aftermath of EVERY presidential debate so far, he has come out in clear first place. We are not just talking about a few percentage points here. He has outpaced the top 3 (Rudy, McCain, & Romney) by something along the lines of 2-1, with all of their votes being COMBINED! Is there some spamming going on? Probably. But even if you say that ONLY Ron Paul's supporters are spamming the polls, this indicates that Ron Paul is clearly the candidate of choice among the internet savvy. At worst, it indicates that the other candidates have no clue as to how to manipulate unscientific polls. Far more likely, IMHO, the majority of Ron Paul's supporters are daily internet users and so he gets a disproportionate vote online. However, the same was true of Howard Dean. Let's see how this one plays out on Feb. 5. My guess, Ron wins BIG in New Hampshire and combined with my next point, translates that into a massive win on Feb. 5th.

3) Crossover voters.

Okay, this one really is cheating IMHO. But it is also the law. Many states allow voters to choose on election day which party's primary they will vote in. The Democrats effectively have no real choices. They can vote for the woman, the black man, or the rich white trial attorney. Whichever face they put on it, they are voting for nationalized health care, ending the war in Iraq, and ending the "Bush tax cuts for the rich." From a substantive perspective, there is no difference between them other than background, race, and gender. Because of this, many Democrats (at least those who care about policy instead of identity politics) might end up deciding to cross over and vote in the Republican primary. Since almost all Democrat primary voters agree that the war in Iraq should end, if they do cross over for the primary vote, there is only ONE candidate that they might go for: Ron Paul. I have 3 friends who are democrats. 2 have said that they might consider crossing over. My dad, a die-hard teacher's-union democrat who has never (to my knowledge) voted Republican in his life watched the latest (3rd) Republican preidential primary debate. Without any prompting from me, and without even knowing that I support Ron Paul (I do not discuss politics with him), he said that Paul was the only one who made sense. Plus, for those democrats who care more about the Iraq issue than any other, crossing over and voting for Paul makes sense. If Ron Paul wins the Republican nomination, the US will be exiting Iraq no matter which party wins the 2008 general election! My guess is that as democrats realize this, that even if Ron Paul does not gain a plurality of Republican primary voters, that he will still win the primaries where crossover votes are allowed.

4) Prop 13.

In 1978, the people of the State of California got an initiative placed on the ballot and passed it to severely limit property taxes specifically and the ability of the legislature to increase ANY taxes generally. This measure was OPPOSED by the Republican establishment, the Democrat establishment, ALL major elected officials and most local officals, Big Labor, Big Business, and the Main-Stream Media (MSM). The little guy was sick of high taxes. The little guy won.

Ron Paul is OPPOSED by the Republican establishment, the Democrat establishment, Big Labor, Big Business (they like corporate subsidies), and the MSM. The people are sick of gevernment officials enacting tax hikes, engaging in wars of aggression, and ignoring the Constitution. In light of the similarity of the other Republican candidates, the rise of the Internet-candidacy, and the ability of voters in many states to cross party-lines for the primary elections...